Multilevel Modeling for Design and Analysis - Online Course
Distinguished Speaker Series: A Seminar Taught by
Andrew Gelman12:00pm-3:00pm (convert to your local time)
ABSTRACT
The three challenges of statistics are:
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- Generalizing from sample to population.
- Generalizing from treatment to control group.
- Generalizing from observed measurements to the underlying constructs of interest.
Traditional statistical methods need to be updated when we move beyond simple models of random sampling, constant effects, and accurate measurements. In this seminar, we consider general challenges of design and analysis in a world of nonrandom samples, varying treatment effects, and noisy data.
A key tool here is multilevel modeling, which is designed for structured data such as voters within states, students within schools, and grouped or clustered designs in surveys and experiments. It’s also useful in settings with more than one source of uncertainty—for example, causal inference with varying treatment effects.
This Distinguished Speaker Series seminar will consist of three hours of lecture, held live* via the free video-conferencing software Zoom. Each hour will include a mix of examples, methods, and discussion, including responding to your questions.
The first hour sets up a conceptual framework for thinking about inference and generalization in the context of multiple sources of variation. The second hour covers multilevel modeling as it applies to sampling and causal inference. The third hour gets into open questions in multilevel modeling and generalization. We will discuss many examples, mostly in social science but some in biology and medicine.
The course is not hands-on, but it will include analyses using R and Stan.
*The video recording of the seminar will be made available to registrants within 24 hours and will be accessible for four weeks thereafter. That means that you can watch all of the class content and discussion even if you cannot participate synchronously.
Closed captioning is available for all live and recorded sessions. Live captions can be translated to a variety of languages including Spanish, Korean, and Italian. For more information, click here.
Seminar outline
Part 1: Conceptual framework
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- Goal of generalization through prediction
- The magic numbers 13 and 16
- Examples of adjustment and effect sizes (Wikipedia experiment, Literary Digest poll, elections and lifespan, sex ratios, political penumbras)
- From design through analysis through interpretation (heart stents, early childhood intervention)
Part 2: Multilevel modeling
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- Big data need big model
- Examples of multilevel data structures (lab cultures, Fragile Families survey, meta-analysis of nudges)
- Varying treatment effects (covid experiment, replication crisis, decline effect)
- Multilevel regression and poststratification case study
Part 3: Challenges
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- Individual and group-level predictors (gun control attitudes, home radon, wages and employment)
- Adjustment for noisy control data (chicken experiments)
- Open questions in multilevel modeling and adjustment (small numbers of groups, non-census variables, survey weights)
- Integrating principles of analysis with principles of design
Part 1: Conceptual framework
-
- Goal of generalization through prediction
- The magic numbers 13 and 16
- Examples of adjustment and effect sizes (Wikipedia experiment, Literary Digest poll, elections and lifespan, sex ratios, political penumbras)
- From design through analysis through interpretation (heart stents, early childhood intervention)
Part 2: Multilevel modeling
-
- Big data need big model
- Examples of multilevel data structures (lab cultures, Fragile Families survey, meta-analysis of nudges)
- Varying treatment effects (covid experiment, replication crisis, decline effect)
- Multilevel regression and poststratification case study
Part 3: Challenges
-
- Individual and group-level predictors (gun control attitudes, home radon, wages and employment)
- Adjustment for noisy control data (chicken experiments)
- Open questions in multilevel modeling and adjustment (small numbers of groups, non-census variables, survey weights)
- Integrating principles of analysis with principles of design
Payment information
The registration fee is $195.
PayPal and all major credit cards are accepted.
Our Tax ID number is 26-4576270.
The registration fee is $195.
PayPal and all major credit cards are accepted.
Our Tax ID number is 26-4576270.